While I had thought there might be a slip-up this week, the team has continued to power through tired legs and pick up win after win after win.

You may be distracted by matches seemingly every other day, so we checked out what has been happing to FCC’s upcoming opponents and around the league.

Upcoming Schedule 

At Bat: June 6th v Pittsburgh Riverhounds (US Open Cup); 23 pts, 2nd in USL East

While there may not be many connections between FCC and the Riverhounds, they both love a one goal win. Pittsburgh comes into the US Open Cup quarterfinal on a streak of 6 consecutive wins with the last three all being 1-0 victories.

Now this isn’t a surprise to anyone who remembers them from Cincy’s USL days, as Pittsburgh coach Bob Lilley has been well known for his team’s ability to frustrate teams in a low block. And it has paid off as they used this formula to beat both Columbus and New England in prior rounds of the US Open Cup.

However, it will be a question if they can handle FC Cincinnati’s full squad as they have faced rotated lineups for each of the two prior cupsets. For a bigger preview check out Jersey Swap from Geoff Tebbets who breaks down the opponent with a local reporter.

On Deck: June 10th @ Vancouver Whitecaps; 21 pts, 7th in the West

FCC will travel to Canada for their final game against a Western Conference opponent by facing the high-flying Vancouver Whitecaps. Led by head coach Vanni Sartini, the Whitecaps have played a high octane pressing and counter attacking style that leads to back and forth affairs. 

In some cases, they have chewed up the opponent like their 6-2 victory over Houston two weeks ago. In others, struggling to score against a solid defense, like their 1-1 draw with SKAC after a late PK allowed them to tie it up.

It will likely be the toughest game for Cincy since their Hell is Real victory but may come at an opportune time, as Vancouver will host Montreal in the Canadian Championship Final. The Canadian version of the Open Cup, on Wednesday night.

In the Hole: June 21st v Toronto FC; 18 pts, 12th in USL East

After 8 games in 25 days, Cincinnati will get a well deserved weekend off before facing a potentially rejuvenated Toronto FC side. In the Summer of 2022, Toronto signed big Italian stars Lorenso Insigne and Federico Bernedeschi with the promise they would be competitive in 2023.

Despite the new signings, they have started the season largely struggling to live up to those expectations. Recent articles from The Athletic have revealed a dysfunctional culture inside of the organization with superstar Federico Bernedeschi being benched by Bob Bradley after suggesting the coach didn’t give them any tactical instructions.

Since his benching, they have won and tied their most recent results and played with a better energy that has been missing for large chunks of the season. It will be interesting to see if there is a continued level of performance with Bernedeschi being reintroduced in upcoming games, or if the dysfunction returns and they have another downturn in form.

Checking in on the West 

Our friends in Portland opened the weekend with a doubleheader with the Portland Thorns of NWSL to face off against their local rivals in Seattle. Unfortunately, the opening game between the Timbers and Sounders failed to produce many sparks as the game ended 0-0. While it is a point, the Timbers have dropped off after their hot beginning of May and have fallen to 11th in the West and the conversation about manager Gio Savarese’s seat continues to warm up.

The managerial seat has both warmed and cooled for teams in the West. Colorado’s Robin Fraser has continued to hear rising calls to look elsewhere as the Rapids fell to Columbus in the midweek and then were unable to inspire with a 0-0 draw against the San Jose Earthquakes. While he can point to having 11 players out from his squad currently, many of whom are starters, the calls for something new, may be expressions of discontent with the front office which has done little to support the team.

And if they are truly discontent then they can look to the LA Galaxy supporters for inspiration as their early season boycotts have resulted in long time GM Chris Klein leaving the club. This has been a call fans have been asking for all season and has created a hostile atmosphere at their games. Immediately following his departure the LA Galaxy went to RSL and got their first victory against an MLS first team in a month. While it will take time to see if this is a sustainable change, coach Greg Vanney will be excited for the opportunity to have his team play in a positive environment again.

Best of the Weekend

In recent weeks it has been announced that Brenner has officially left the team after a recent ankle injury. However, his departure has come with little fanfare as the club and player couldn’t come to an arranged goodbye ceremony for him. While there appears to have been a breakdown in the relationship between the front office and the player, it doesn’t feel right to not have a moment to celebrate a player who was integral in helping to turn around the team last season.

So I have gone through and pulled up the Top 5 Goals that Brenner has scored for FCC to remember the highlights of his time here.

5. Backheel “Goal” v. New York City FC (June 29, 2022)

It’s unfortunate this goal was called out of bounds earlier in the play, because Brenner’s audacious backheel through the legs of a defender was the best goal he ever scored. However, because it didn’t count it can’t be higher than #5.

4. Upper 90’s goal v DC United (October 9, 2022)

It may not seem like a special goal, but the fact that the ball is just behind his momentum and he is able to curl it into the top corner, is a special finish in my eyes. Not to mention it was the goal that really solidified FCC’s first qualifications to the playoffs in 2022.

3. Final Goal for Hat Trick v San Jose Earthquakes (September 10, 2022)

While this came in the midst of a full blown rout, he won the ball before racing forward to deftly chip it over the on rushing goalkeeper. Chefs kiss!

2. Leaping Kick v Toronto FC (September 11, 2021)

This was probably the highlight of the season. He correctly reads the ball and was able to just knick it inside the post with his outstretched foot. With little else to celebrate that season, at least there was a banger to cheer.

1. Bicycle Kick v. New York City FC (June 29, 2022)

While not the best goal of the game, see above why, it was the one that stood. That being said, it was extremely creative to be able to adjust his body to the deflection and hit it in as FCC were on a first half rout before giving the momentum away.

Happy Pride Month Ya’ll

The post MLS Weekend Recap – June 5th 2023 appeared first on Cincinnati Soccer Talk.

FC Cincinnati ranks 15th out of 29 teams in total guaranteed compensation spend at just over $15,000,000. The guaranteed compensation (guaranteed comp) number provided by the MLSPA includes a player’s base salary and all signing and guaranteed bonuses annualized over the term of the player’s contract, including option years.

Brenner’s salary ranks 25th in the league and leads the team in compensation at $2,218,600, followed closely by Luciano Acosta (28th) at $2,166,983.

While these numbers are terrific and provide great insight into each team’s roster composition, it does not tell the entire story as it relates to the MLS League Salary Budget. When accounting for the salary budget, in most situations, each team has to factor in transfer fees averaged annually on top of guaranteed comp (excluding YDP/U-22 players).

For the 2023 season, each team began with a salary budget of $5,210,000. Teams are equipped with several vehicles to buy down the budget charge of each player including Target Allocation Money (TAM), General Allocation Money (GAM), U-22 Player System, and Designated Players (DP). For the sake of brevity for this article, we are going to assume the reader knows the general concepts of each vehicle. If you are unsure, you can view the 2023 MLS Rules & Regulations here.

To give you an example in 2023 Matt Miazaga has a guaranteed comp number of $1,500,000, but as a free transfer, that is the remainder of his hit. Obinna Nwobodo’s guaranteed comp is less at $1,289,400 but when you account for his transfer fee to Göztepe of around $3,000,000 you are looking at an annual budget hit somewhere in the neighborhood of $2,289,400 making him a DP while Mizaga would occupy a TAM spot.

Looking at the 2023 roster (see below), FC Cincinnati has 6 players with charges over $1,000,000 that need to be bought down. When you exclude Brenner, Acosta, and Nwobodo as DP’s, you have Miazga, Yuya Kubo ($1,206,750), Brandon Vazquez ($1,041,000), and add in Sergio Santos ($814,375) that eat up a large portion of allocation money used to buy down the charge.

Taking into account other standard budget hits, transfer fees, and trades, our tracker makes the case that FC Cincinnati is close to their salary budget number with the 2023 season.

With Brenner out the door in July leaving an estimated three senior spots available, can FC Cincinnati make many more moves in 2023?

• View on Cincinnati Soccer Talk’s Roster Tracker

How to replace Brenner as a DP?

That is the $11 million question with his move to Udinese in Italy’s Serie A this summer. Brenner occupies FC Cincinnati’s lone Young Designated Player (YDP) spot and the marginal budget hit that comes with it.

A lack of budget space, and already having 2 U-22 roster spots occupied (rules state another max DP limits you to one U-22 player), the only likely scenario in this situation is to sign another YDP. When looking at a target, a player must be 23 years old or younger during the league year to carry the smaller YDP budget charge between $150,000-$200,000. The team is able to exclude the transfer fee in this scenario making it likely if Chris Albright can land his target.

It’s yet to be determined if this player would be another striker with Vazquez, Santos, Dom Badji, and Quimi Ordonez on the roster but I think you see them land a new YDP in the summer window without disrupting the current budget situation.

How can they fill their other 2 open Senior spots?

Now our numbers aren’t the end-all-be-all with a limited amount of info made available to the public, but they are an educated best guess as to the current situation. We don’t know the exact amounts of the transfer fees or allocation money made available to teams in expansion years but it seems to lead to the fact that FC Cincinnati has a smaller pool of funds to make moves with this summer than originally thought.

I think this would rule out a large interleague transfer for allocation money like Sergio Santos in 2022 unless a player goes the other way. I can’t really imagine FC Cincinnati wanting to give up a player like a Calvin Harris earlier this year and not sure a team would want a rental with a large hit like Yuya Kubo.

If FC Cincinnati would go interleague, I think it would require exchanging future allocation money for a younger supplemental roster piece. The caveat to this is that FC Cincinnati has 3 international spots open. They fetched $175,000 from Nashville earlier this season and could sell 1-2 more spots to teams and add allocation money to land a larger piece. If you could pull off a move or two to get a couple hundred thousand in GAM and get a CB version of Junior Moreno, i.e. a solid yet not splashy player, you take it in a minute.

Does this mean FC Cincinnati has to go international?

With one open U-22 spot, I think this is the other likely move Albright will make this summer. Similar to the YDP spot, the U-22 mechanism allows teams to exclude the transfer fee in the budget charge but, unlike the YDP, the player’s salary has to be under the maximum budget charge ($651,250). This would allow a team to then account for a budget charge between $150,000-$200,000.

Now how could FC Cincinnati take a $200,000 hit when the spreadsheet says that’s not available? One of the more unique rules in MLS allows summer signings to come in at a prorated charge. Think Matt Miazga last summer coming in from Chelsea and only accounting for a couple hundred thousand in a budget hit for 2022. A half season U-22 piece would account for somewhere between $75,000-$100,000. That should easily fit in the budget while giving a player time to bed in on an already successful team.

I think an international player that would require a transfer fee, even a small one, wouldn’t fit in this salary budget without a large shakeup of existing pieces. Not to say it won’t happen but reports are that this team is close and I’m not sure the front office would want to risk disturbing team chemistry to bring in a new player.

Time will tell which moves the club will make this summer but it will be an exciting time leading up to the window opening on July 5th 2023.

The post Salary Budget Breakdown: Can FC Cincinnati make more moves this Summer? appeared first on Cincinnati Soccer Talk.

Highlights from this week’s show.

This week Coach Gough welcomes Mike Lahoud back to the show to hang out with him and Justin Hoyte. The guys reminisce about that fantastic 2018 squad while drawing comparisons to this year’s team. Who does Lahoud think is a young player that can take the next step and be a contributor? What do Justin and Mike think the key to FC Cincinnati’s midfield will be?

The guys also talk about their experiences getting called up to international duty, and get into a bit of banter.

Follow Coach and Justin

Coach is @FCCincyTacTalk and Justin is @JustinHoyte32

Support Talking Tactics and CST!

Want to help the Talking Tactics Podcast grow? Leave a rating and a review! Want to help support Cincinnati Soccer Talk? Want to become an episode captain? Become a supporter today!

Subscribe to Cincinnati Soccer Talk

Don’t forget you can now download and subscribe to Cincinnati Soccer Talk on iTunes today! The podcast can also be found on Stitcher Smart Radio now. We’re also available in the Google Play Store and NOW ON SPOTIFY!

As always we’d love your feedback about our podcast! You can email the show at feedback@cincinnatisoccertalk.com. We’d love for you to join us on our Facebook page as well! Like us at Facebook.com/CincinnatiSoccerTalk.

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The post Mike Lahoud and Justin Hoyte Spill the FC Cincinnati Tea. appeared first on Cincinnati Soccer Talk.

Let’s look at where your favorite FCC players ranked for this match.

Check out Cincinnati Soccer Talk’s post-match report HERE for more details.

RULES:

• Each player starts off with a six as a standard rating. Six signifies an “average performance” for the match.
• Players will receive additions or subtractions to their score based on individual moments and the overall team performance.
• We’ll look at multiple criteria and statistics from websites like FB Ref, Who Scored and FOTMOB.
• All statistics used will be taken from fbref.com when possible.
• A player may receive a N/A if they are subbed on/off before any quantifiable statistics are available.

Expected Goals (xG): FC Cincinnati – 1.2, DC United – 1.1, per mlssoccer.com

Formation: 3-5-2

Now onto the ratings:

Manager – Pat Noonan – 7.5

I think Noonan got his tactics spot-on this match. Because D.C. United tends to create pressure pockets on the outside when setting up its defense, daring opponents to play to a wide player before pressing, Pat dropped Acosta into that space and pushed his wingback higher. This allowed FCC’s best dribbler to work out of the field’s tightest spots. Handing Alvas Powell his first start of the season also paid off, as you’ll see in his rating below.

So why only a 7.5? I seriously question the gaffer’s substitutions down the stretch. First, I think he brought Brenner onto the pitch too early. The Brazilian was clearly rusty, and Sergio Santos still had energy in the tank. Second, substituting Ray Gaddis for Barreal meant he didn’t have any outside defenders left on the bench when Powell was hobbled late on in the match. This forced Ian Murphy to play wingback. Ultimately, Gaddis and Murphy both played a part in the goal that FCC allowed late on.

GK – Roman Celentano – 7.5

Roman Celentano had another good shot-stopping game between the sticks. He made four saves en route to giving up one goal on a 1.1 PSxG. His kick save on Ruan in the 24th minute and his 42nd-minute save, when he was able to get low quickly and deny Benteke, allowed the match to stay scoreless headed into the half.

He was also more aggressive than is typical with aerial balls. He came out and got a touch on a corner kick in the 30th minute, taking the ball just out of reach of Victor Pállson, and came out to claim a cross before Christian Benteke could get a head on it in the 45th minute. Finally, he was able to come out and claim a cross in the dying moments of the match to preserve the win.

However, Celentano’s distribution was still erratic at best. He also dropped the aforementioned claim in the 45th minute before recovering it and deflected a save right into the middle of the box in the 44th that Miazga was able to clear. Ultimately, Celentano did enough to get the win and played well, but he was far from perfect.

RWB – Alvas Powell – 7

Alvis Powell far exceeded what we’ve seen from other right wingbacks this season. His five crosses, three shot-creating actions, one key pass and three passes into the penalty area don’t quite show his full contribution. His excellent first touch and cutback off a long diagonal from Matt Miaga in the seventh minute should have led to the first opportunity for FCC had Santos not scuffed the shot. He had a similar opportunity in the 49th minute where his cross just illuded Brandon Vazquez at the near post. His cross to Barreal in the 27th minute led to an Acosta shot opportunity that was hit over the bar. Finally, his positive play and decent cross in the 59th minute led to the corner kick that Acosta scored.

However, Powell is far from the perfect prototype for his position. He got dribbled three times and committed two fouls in the defensive third of the field. He also had several mental lapses that led to turnovers out of bounds or shots on goal for D.C. United. His four mistouches were tied for the team lead. Ultimately, the Jamaican international did enough to warrant far more playing time than he’s gotten, but he needs to stay focused in order to be an every-week starter.

RCB – Nick Hagglund – 7

Nick Hagglund’s 84 percent passing and three progressive passes are good numbers for an outside center back. He also managed a key blocked shot and an interception. Ultimately, however, his four of nine long passes coupled with his only getting into one ground duel left a bit to be desired.

The key to Hagglund’s game has always been his physicality and his work rate. The Cincinnati Kid won four of five aerial duels in a match where he was put up against Benteke on several occasions. That alone is enough to warrant a respectable score, but the fact that he was spot-on in his positioning to limit Taxi Fountas’ midfield presence didn’t go unnoticed either.

CB – Matt Miazga – 8.5

So much of what Miazga does won’t ever show up in the stat sheet. He constantly tracks runners into wide areas when his outside center backs get pulled out of position. He marshalls center forwards, tracks checking midfielders and is a constant presence on every ball into the box. In this match, he didn’t get into a single ground duel or log a tackle. His lone defensive number was a singular interception. However, he also won three of four aerial duels and didn’t really put a foot wrong all night.

In possession, he was also darn near perfect. His 93 percent passing included going 10 of 12 on long passes and he contributed three passes into the final third. On at least two occasions his long diagonals to Powell got the offense rolling and created opportunities. If Miazga continues to play as he did in this one, he should end up as a mainstay in the USMNT.

LCB – Yerson Mosquera – 8

If Miazga was excellent, I’m not sure there’s another superlative to describe Mosquera’s game. He bettered his central partner in passing percentage (94.5 percent), and tied for the team lead for progressive passes (seven) and passes into the final third (four).

Like Miazga, he didn’t have defensive numbers to speak of, logging only one block and one interception. Unlike Miazga, however, he only won three of his six aerial duels and two of his four ground duels.

LWB – Álvaro Barreal – 8.5

Álvaro Barreal is proving to be indispensable at left wingback. If you don’t believe me, go back and watch the final 12 minutes of the match when Gaddis replaced him there, followed by Murphy. Barreal is never going to be a lockdown defender, but he doesn’t need to be with Mosquera behind him. Ruan got the better of him on several occasions, including a really good opportunity that led to a Celentano save in the 24th minute. Despite this, he is more than adequate defensively. In this match, he contributed three tackles, a block and an interception.

Offensively is where the young Argentinian really shines. His goal was a cracker of a shot, and he could have easily had an assist when he laid a ball off to Acosta in the 28th minute. He also contributed five progressive passes and two progressive carries to go along with a key pass. His one black mark in possession was his abysmal two of 10 long passes.

DCM – Junior Moreno – 6

Junior Moreno can be infuriating to watch when FCC is in possession. He constantly takes up great positions and takes care of the ball. He managed 91 percent passing in this one. However, he also constantly ignores opportunities to move the ball forward in favor of playing it safe. If you see his passing chart below you’ll notice conspicuously few arrows pointing in the offensive direction. And passing forward isn’t his biggest weakness in this regard! The number of opportunities that he has to move the ball forward via the dribble is astounding, yet he constantly ignores them in favor of cutting the ball back and playing square.

That said, not hurting the team is also important, and Moreno rarely does so. He tracks runners adeptly, clogs passing lanes, communicates constantly and (as mentioned before) takes care of the ball.

DCM – Obi Nwobodo – 7

Obi Nwobodo caught a bit of the Morenos in this match, being reluctant to move the ball forward. His two progressive passes and one progressive carry simply aren’t good enough for a player in his position. Even so, he still managed to move the ball forward when it was absolutely key to do so, tying for the team lead with four passes into the offensive third.

If the other half of his midfield pivot was more positive in possession, this wouldn’t be an issue for Nwobodo. His defensive metrics were off the charts in this one as per usual. He led the team with four tackles while earning a block and an interception as well. He also got into 16 ground duels, winning nine.

CAM – Lucho Acosta – 9 (Man of the Match)

I don’t think Acosta had his best match of the year. Despite this, when you have a goal and an assist in a 2-1 win … you often win Man of the Match. He led the team (or tied for the lead) in shots (three), shot-creating actions (three), progressive passes (seven), key passes (two) and passes into the penalty area (three). Simply put, he was key to everything the Orange and Blue did offensively.

It looked to me like Acosta also covered a lot more ground than he typically does on Saturday. He dropped deep and wide to open up passing lanes and push the wingbacks higher up the pitch. He also tracked back defensively on several occasions, though he doesn’t have the defensive stats to show for it.

ST – Sergio Santos – 5.5

It’s not often that the bulk of a striker’s rating comes from his defensive effort, but it is the case for Sergio Santos in this match. Santos’ two tackles, one block and eight ground duels are impressive numbers for a frontman. No moment in the match epitomized his work rate more than in the 58th minute when he caught center back Donavan Pines in possession from behind on two consecutive plays.

That said, strikers need to strike … or at least be a threat to do so. Santos’ fluffed shot in the seventh minute was a good opportunity and he should have done better. Furthermore, neither of his two shots were on target, he had zero shot-creating actions and he was zero for two with his take-ons. In all, he only ended up with 20 touches, and only 11 in the offensive third. If not for his defensive effort, his rating could have really been ugly.

ST – Brandon Vazquez – 4.5

I couldn’t get around giving Vazquez the goat horns in this match. Despite his very minimal involvement (only 24 touches), he tied for the team lead with four mistouches and added a dispossession. His 47 percent passing was jaw-droppingly poor. He also failed to score with the highest xG chance of the match, a wide-open shot from 17 yards off a Yuya Kubo interception.

SUBS

Brenner (65th minute) – 6.5

A lot was made of how much better FCC was once Brenner entered for Santos in the 65th minute. Despite only playing 26 minutes, he tied for the team lead with three shot-creating actions. His calm holdup play and back heel were key moments in the buildup to Barreal’s game-winner. Finally, his excellent bit of skill in the fourth minute of stoppage time might not have led to a penalty call, but it absolutely could have.

So why only a 6.5? Brenner entered the match for a player that, minutes before, engaged in two separate long sprints to track down a center back progressing the ball and win it for his team. He came into a match with his team holding onto a one-goal lead. Yet, he didn’t really engage in pressing much, didn’t earn a tackle, block, or interception and only had two ball recoveries.

Ray Gaddis (79th minute) – 4

Noonan didn’t do Ray Ray any favors by putting him into the match on his less-favored left side, then switching him to the right halfway through his appearance. However, Gaddis didn’t do his team any favors by losing his mark at the back post for D.C. United’s only goal of the match. Furthermore, “Gatman” was on the pitch for 11 minutes but only had two touches … one of which was a turnover. Gaddis has a lot of good qualities as a veteran for this team, but his introduction was not a positive one in this match.

Malik Pinto (87th minute) – N/A

Ian Murphy (87th minute) – N/A

Yuya Kubo (88th minute) – N/A

Availability Notes: Santiago Arias (quad), Quimi Ordoñez (international duty)

DEFINITIONS:

• xG – Expected goals (or xG) measures the quality of a chance by calculating the likelihood that it will be scored from a particular position on the pitch during a particular phase of play
• xA – Expected assist (or xA) is directly related to the xG of a shot that the pass creates.
• Post-Shot xG (PSxG) – Post-Shot xG is calculated after the shot has been taken, once it is known that the shot is on-target, taking into account the quality of the shot.
• Progressive Pass – A pass that advances toward the opponent’s goal where the distance between the starting point and the next touch is:
  • at least 30 meters closer to the opponent’s goal if the starting and finishing points are within a team’s own half
  • at least 15 meters closer to the opponent’s goal if the starting and finishing points are in different halves
  • at least 10 meters closer to the opponent’s goal if the starting and finishing points are in the opponent’s half
• Progressive Carry – Carries that move the ball toward the opponent’s goal at least 5 yards or any carry into the penalty area. Excludes carries from the defending 40% of the pitch.
• Dribble – Moving past the opposing player while maintaining possession of the ball. When a player shields the ball or otherwise uses physical strength to maintain possession, this is not a dribble.
• Key Pass – A pass that immediately creates a clear goal scoring opportunity for a teammate. A key pass does not have to lead to a shot, and thus is different than a shot-creating action.
• Long Pass – Definition depends on the site being used. Typically, a pass that travels a distance greater than 30 yards.
• Mistouch – When a player fails when trying to gain control of the ball without a defender earning a tackle or a ground duel.
• Ground Duel – A challenge between two players to gain control of the ball, progress with the ball, or change its direction.
• Dispossessed – The times a player loses control of the ball after a tackle from an opponent, not including attempted dribbles.
• Recovery – Any action that ends the possession of the opponent without the ball going out of bounds. Recoveries are typically duels (44%) or interceptions (16%), but can happen without any specific action from the player doing the recovery (positioning himself correctly or simply collecting the ball).

The post Player Ratings: FC Cincinnati 2, DC United 1 appeared first on Cincinnati Soccer Talk.

Highlights from this week’s show.

This week Coach Gough breaks down FC Cincinnati’s 2-1 win over DC United. What impact did Alvas Powell’s introduction to the starting lineup have? Is the Nwobodo/Moreno midfield pairing sustainable?

Coach also asks what to do without Brenner, talks Álvaro Barreal, and gets to your questions in the mailbag

Follow Coach and Justin

Coach is @FCCincyTacTalk and Justin is @JustinHoyte32

Support Talking Tactics and CST!

Want to help the Talking Tactics Podcast grow? Leave a rating and a review! Want to help support Cincinnati Soccer Talk? Want to become an episode captain? Become a supporter today!

Subscribe to Cincinnati Soccer Talk

Don’t forget you can now download and subscribe to Cincinnati Soccer Talk on iTunes today! The podcast can also be found on Stitcher Smart Radio now. We’re also available in the Google Play Store and NOW ON SPOTIFY!

As always we’d love your feedback about our podcast! You can email the show at feedback@cincinnatisoccertalk.com. We’d love for you to join us on our Facebook page as well! Like us at Facebook.com/CincinnatiSoccerTalk.

The show’s RSS feed is https://fcctactalk.libsyn.com/rss

The post Did Powell’s Start Start FC Cincinnati’s Offense appeared first on Cincinnati Soccer Talk.

Offensive Woes?

There’s a disconnect between how we’re talking about FCC’s attack and the actual results on the field. Before sitting down to write this, I would’ve agreed that FCC’s offensive output was struggling and that a surprising defense was to thank for FCC’s position tied atop the Eastern Conference. But that’s not really the case. Something can be two things, of course, in this case, FCC is scoring a more-than-respectable number of goals (backed up by even better underlying numbers) but the attack still isn’t what most of us expected coming into the season. 

First, the good news.

FCC has scored 15 goals, tied for 7th most in MLS, and is 5th in the league per American Soccer Analysis with 16.65 xG. (Side note: I have some questions about Fbref after a revision to last week’s 1-1 draw against New England – but that’s a conversation for another time).

Additionally, Brandon Vazquez and Sergio Santos both rank in the top 7 in MLS in non-penalty expected goals in 2023, with 3.4 and 3.6 npxG respectively. Granted, Vazquez has played more minutes than most of his peers in the top-10 but he hasn’t been bad, despite limited opportunities of late. I’m still bullish on his season even with some structural issues that might be holding him, and the rest of the team back. 

For a season that has felt so much like offensive underperformance, and not to say that it isn’t, the Orange and Blue’s attack has been better than many in the league. And now that we’re 11 games into the season, the sample size is at a point where it’s not just noise. 

Brenner’s 26-minute cameo on Saturday certainly made things look better. He was instrumental in the build-up to Álvaro Barreal’s goal. Brenner’s backheel up the right sideline to break DC’s pressure and then, after receiving a return pass, to find a wide-open Lucho Acosta just beyond the halfway line before releasing Barreal in behind. 

So the attacking play has felt stagnant but the results, at least compared to the rest of the league, hasn’t been as bad as it’s seemed. Still, there’s something to FCC’s attacking play just not clicking. And there’s evidence to support that, too. 

Below are two charts comparing FCC’s possession-adjusted final third and attacking penalty area entries in the last two seasons. (Adjusting for possession should make for better comparisons as it normalizes across games when FCC dominated the ball and vice versa.)  

As is pretty clear from the charts, FCC just isn’t getting the ball into the final third or the attacking penalty area in 2023 as much as it did in 2022. That means fewer opportunities for attacking players to get on the ball in dangerous areas. So despite the underlying, and goal-scoring, numbers being pretty good, we’re also not wrong about FCC’s attack not operating at its peak. 

If the Orange and Blue can figure out a way to more reliably get the ball into the final third, maybe things will start to click and we’ll see a return to the offensive fireworks of 2022. That would be great news for FCC supporters and bad news for the rest of the league. 

A Quick Note On Powell’s Return

A bright spot on Saturday was the return of Alvas Powell to the starting lineup at right wingback. Last week I joined Talking Tactics for a segment to talk about the Orange and Blue’s issues with ball progression and speculated that Powell could provide another dimension in the build-up phase.

Powell was a viable option in the attacking third of the field, finding space to receive the ball around the penalty area. Compare his pass map, on the right, to Ray Gaddis’ against New England, on the left. Powell’s willingness to look to switch the point of attack helped FCC navigate through DC’s defensive shape. 

He also pushed the ball forward on the dribble. His five progressive carries led the Orange and Blue on the night, providing an option up the right side, missing in past weeks. Getting more from the right-back position should allow Barreal to do more of what he’s so good at, impact the game in the final third. 

The post FC Cincinnati’s attack is better than you think but there’s still room for improvement appeared first on Cincinnati Soccer Talk.

The ability to add a new high-profile player will surely have FCC fans on the edge of their seats, staring at Twitter on their phones, waiting to see how a competently managed FC Cincinnati decides to use this precious asset. Here is my clearly unbiased opinion on how FCC should spend their newfound wealth.

Option A:

Whether or not you feel this is the best option, I may get booed off the website if I don’t lead off with replacing a Young DP striker with … you guessed it! ANOTHER Young DP striker.

This option is not only the most convenient answer, but it also makes sense. The club is currently left with Brandon Vazquez, Dom Badji, Quimi Ordonez and Sergio Santos at the position. With Noonan favoring the 3-5-2 formation with two strikers up top, this does not leave much depth. It’s likely Albright will look to add to the position, but why does it need to be a high-level player? The answer lies in the inconsistency and questions the current group provides.

Vazquez is easily a fan favorite. Last year his 18 goals and eight assists were both career-bests. It was also the first time in his career in which he started a majority of the matches he played in (32/33). The recent USMNT call-up has not had a start to this season similar to his end of last. Last year, Vazquez averaged 0.81 assists and goals per start, versus this season being at a 0.33 average through 9 matches. Although still very early in the season, we have yet to see if last season was a standout performance, or the first of many to come.

Badji and Santos have both been around MLS for a handful of years. This does not necessarily mean they have the same flashy numbers you have seen from Vazquez and Brenner in 2022. Badji’s best season came in 2017 when he scored nine times and assisted four over 33 matches (29 starts). That comes to a 0.45 average goals and assists per start, just over half of Vazquez’s production last season. 

Sergio Santos has shown promise at times this season and throughout his career. The one undeniably impressive dynamic he brings to the squad, which cannot be taught, is speed. Santos has also shown he has the ability to fit in and produce alongside Vazquez and in front of Lucho Acosta.

The one glaring downfall to trusting Santos is the injury bug. It has been said that the greatest ability is availABILITY, and unfortunately, Santos has struggled with that at times. Although, with eight goals and two assists in 15 starts in 2022, for an average of 0.66 goals and assists per start, and four goals and one assist to begin this season (three starts over nine matches), there are glimpses of promise in this player. Also, I believe I speak for many FCC fans when I say he has passed the eyeball test early on this year. 

Option B:

This option goes wayyyy back, nearly to the back line. With Acosta at attacking mid, that position is set in stone. With Obi Nwobodo and Yuya Kubo both on expensive contracts, along with young talent such as Marco Angulo and Malik Pinto already getting playing time, the midfield has both star power and upcoming potential present.

In MLS, few teams use their DP spot on a center back, and with Matt Miazga, Nick Hagglund, Yerson Mosquera (for now) and Ian Murphy, it’s hard to see a need in using a DP spot here. That leads to the wing back position. It appears that Noonan is committed to the 3-5-2, which means there is an importance on wing backs who can produce offensively while being able to get back and cover their position on defense.

Luckily, the emergence of Alvaro Barreal has led to a sense of ease and optimism when it comes to the left back position. Right back though, is still very much up in the air. 

FCC currently has Santiago Arias, Ray Gaddis and Alvas Powell rotating into that spot. To say that none of the three have claimed the job full-time is an understatement.

Arias, the former Atletico Madrid defender, certainly has the pedigree to excel. The issue is he’s coming off a serious injury that led him to have to find an opportunity in MLS. Although we all love MLS, you have to accept the league is a couple of steps below La Liga, leading to questions on his ability to ever fully recover to the form he had before. Coming off injury, there will be many questions about his ability to stay healthy and be a 90-minute fit for a whole season. 

Tuck it in! Gaddis was drug out of retirement by Albright and Noonan to help fill a void on this roster. Knowing that does very little to bolster confidence in his ability to stay fit for a whole season and produce at a level needed to help this club reach the heights it hopes to this season. If Gaddis does stay fit, he is a solid player on the defensive end, but leaves much to be desired offensively having never had more than one assist in a season. I’m by no means a soccer savant, but with a three center back formation, I would believe it necessary to get more production from the wing back position than Gaddis has shown the ability to provide. 

That all leads to a player who FCC fans know well, Alvas Powell. Powell is back at FCC for a second stint following his time served in 2019. Having returned to the club for a second run, and not seeing a single start over seven appearances despite the struggles to keep Arias on the field leads me to believe that Pat Noonan does not see Powell as a reliable option at the right back position.

My opinion:

I am one of the many fans who is excited to see who will become Noonan and Albright’s next Designated Player signing at FC Cincinnati. I believe using the DP slot on a striker makes sense and could be fruitful for the club. Imagine a new Brenner except he isn’t overvalued, comes into a competent squad, produces, and is sold for more than $10 million. That would certainly be the sexy option, and one many fans could get behind.

The more adventurous option is using the spot on a right back. What Noonan is doing to develop Barreal into a true left back has been nothing short of impressive. Now imagine the same level of production (three assists over nine matches) on the opposite side, paired with the threat of Lucho up the middle. This would leave opposing clubs in shambles trying to game plan on how to stop the FCC attack.

Although using the DP spot in this way does leave open the question, who is going to be on the receiving end of the provided service? This option would best be suited for you, if you believe that these plentiful service opportunities simply just need a striker on the end of them, rather than THE striker, which is what you’re paying for with a DP spot. 

In the end, this is an exciting time to be an FC Cincinnati fan. Sure, seeing a star player such as Brenner leave can leave a sour taste in the mouths of fans who are less familiar with how squad development works in the beautiful game. I assure you, seeing players leave for bigger opportunities abroad is not only something you will see again, but it’s something you should welcome.

These players only get bigger opportunities because they are producing for clubs such as FC Cincinnati. In the end, if players produce for the club, the club succeeds. The question then becomes, how does the front office fill the void that is left, which is how we have arrived at the crossroads we currently find ourselves. Stay tuned in to your local soccer media outlets, there are exciting times on the horizon.

-Guest commentary: Kevin Lykins

The post Brenner – Where do we go from here? appeared first on Cincinnati Soccer Talk.

Highlights from this week’s show.

This week Coach Gough and Justin Hoyte break down FC Cincinnati’s 1-1 draw away to the New England Revolution. Did Pat Noonan get his substitutions right? What went wrong with the officiating?

Then, Nate Gilman joins the show to talk with Coach about FCC’s problems progressing the ball up the field and how to fix them.

Follow Coach and Justin

Coach is @FCCincyTacTalk and Justin is @JustinHoyte32

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Want to help the Talking Tactics Podcast grow? Leave a rating and a review! Want to help support Cincinnati Soccer Talk? Want to become an episode captain? Become a supporter today!

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The post No Progress in New England appeared first on Cincinnati Soccer Talk.

Brenner had been linked with moves to the Italian club and English Premier League club Nottingham Forest in January prior to the 2023 MLS season. This transaction will become official when the FIFA transfer window opens in Italy on July 1st. Brenner will remain with FCC until the end of June.

While the club did not release financial specifics of the move, it was reported by Tom Bogert of the Athletic that the move would be for at least $10 million plus add-on bonuses and a sell-on percentage. Laurel Pfahler of Queen City Press reported additional specifics of the deal.

The forward arrived to Cincinnati in February 2021 on a $13 million transfer from Brazilian Serie A club Sao Paulo FC. His incoming transfer fee ranked as the third highest in league history behind Pity Martinez and Ezequiel Barco, both of Atlanta United.

While the club has not immediately recouped all of the Brazilian’s purchase price, the fee will still rank as one of the top 10 sales in league history.

The move makes sense for all parties. It allows Brenner to continue toward his European goals and shows that FCC are a capable developmental club for future players. Including future moves for Alvaro Barreal and Brandon Vazquez, FCC should be made whole on their recent expenditures and sales.

Brenner has made 72 total appearances in two+ seasons with FC Cincy including 63 starts. His 2021 season was a disappointment with the forward only scoring 8 goals in 33 starts. Transfer rumors swirled in the Spring of 2022, but Brenner stayed for what was a career-best season. After reporting to FCC late due to paperwork issues, Brenner would score 18 goals and log 6 assists in 24 starts to clinch the club’s first-ever playoff berth.

On the field Brenner had a knack for scoring in streaks including three “hat-tricks” and a total of 5 multi-goal matches in 2022. His on-field relationship with playmaker Lucho Acosta was evident since the beginning with both players inter-playing well with one another. Later in 2022, Brenner and forward Brandon Vazquez also connected well with the later assisting on 3 of the Brazilians final 10 goals.

“We’re extremely happy for Brenner that he’s able to make this move and play in one of the biggest leagues in Europe,” said Chris Albright, FC Cincinnati general manager in the club’s release. “Our ultimate goal at FC Cincinnati is to win games for our incredible fans, and we understand that developing players is central to attracting the best talent. This is a significant transfer for our club and is a testament to everything our staff has done in the past year and a half. Our ownership will continue to give us the resources to compete and this transfer only adds to that commitment.”

This move will free up an important Designated Player spot on the FCC roster. Due to MLS roster rules, FCC could be limited in what type of player they acquire to replace Brenner. The Brazilian was listed as a ‘Young Designated Player’ (YDP) which includes players under the age of 23. As a YDP, Brenner accounted for a lower charge ($200,000) on the club’s salary budget and allowed FCC to sign three U-22 designation players (ex. Barreal, Angulo, Vallecilla and Atanga).

Per the club’s website, they currently have two U-22 designation players in Barreal and Marco Angulo. Should FCC sign a third senior DP the club would only be allowed one U-22 player mechanism player. Barreal’s roster budget charge will have to change with more of his salary and transfer fee ($1.5 million +) accounted for should he not be sold and a senior DP be brought in.

FCC will have to wait until the Summer transfer period which will open on July 5th. Should FCC bring in a new DP in the Summer window, that DP would hit the club’s salary budget at a reduced rate.

If Cincinnati do not bring in another forward to replace Brenner, former Philadelphia forward Sergio Santos and 2022 free agent Dom Badji will likely battle for the starting spot next to USMNT forward Brandon Vazquez. Another wrinkle in the forward battle could be homegrown signee Arquimides “Quimi” Ordoñez who impressed in parts during last season and has had a strong start in the 2023 MLS Next Pro campaign.

***This story will be updated with more details of the transaction

The post FC Cincinnati agree to transfer Brenner to Serie A club Udinese appeared first on Cincinnati Soccer Talk.

Highlights from this week’s show.

This week Coach Gough and Justin Hoyte break down FC Cincinnati’s 2-1 win over the Portland Timbers. What tactics made the difference in the win? How is this team different without Brenner? Could they perhaps be better?

The guys also ask who stood out in the win, what Brenner has to play for when he returns, and get to your questions in the mailbag.

Follow Coach and Justin

Coach is @FCCincyTacTalk and Justin is @JustinHoyte32

Support Talking Tactics and CST!

Want to help the Talking Tactics Podcast grow? Leave a rating and a review! Want to help support Cincinnati Soccer Talk? Want to become an episode captain? Become a supporter today!

Subscribe to Cincinnati Soccer Talk

Don’t forget you can now download and subscribe to Cincinnati Soccer Talk on iTunes today! The podcast can also be found on Stitcher Smart Radio now. We’re also available in the Google Play Store and NOW ON SPOTIFY!

As always we’d love your feedback about our podcast! You can email the show at feedback@cincinnatisoccertalk.com. We’d love for you to join us on our Facebook page as well! Like us at Facebook.com/CincinnatiSoccerTalk.

The show’s RSS feed is https://fcctactalk.libsyn.com/rss

The post No Brenner, No Problem appeared first on Cincinnati Soccer Talk.