The Case for Worry

If you want to be worried about this edition of the Orange and Blue, there are signs that you should be. Even accounting for new players needing time to gel and a congested fixture list, there are a few things that Pat Noonan and the coaching staff might not be able to fix without the addition of some new players.

First, there is no replacement for Pavel Bucha on this roster. Bucha has been a revelation so far this year, stepping up his game by contributing more on the score sheet and in ball progression. He brings stability to the midfield both in and out of possession. In the lone match of the season to date where he didn’t start—the hefty defeat in Philadelphia—the team looked bereft of ideas on how to progress the ball or retain possession. Then, they seemed to collapse after Pat Noonan subbed him off in the second leg against Tigres, turning a 1-0 lead into a 3-1 deficit within 14 minutes of his departure.

In the Union match, Noonan elected to replace Bucha in the lineup with Tah Brian Anunga. In this case, Anunga struggled mightily to add anything in ball progression or retention, putting the team under more pressure defensively and proving that starting him and Obinna Nwobodo together will make ball progression more difficult. Against Tigres, Yuya Kubo subbed on for Bucha to add mobility and energy to a tiring midfield. However, Kubo’s lack of discipline defensively broke what had been a very structured defensive unit, showing that a lineup that includes him and Nwobodo as the defensive midfield block will make defending more difficult.

Second, the wide defender depth on this team is nonexistent. There are only three actual wide defenders on this roster: Lukas Engel, DeAndre Yedlin, and Alvas Powell. Outside of those players Noonan has relied on offensive pieces like Corey Baird, Luca Orellano, or Kubo to deputize. While none of these players is injured (yet), some of them have had their struggles.

Engel has had flashes of looking like the two-way wingback FCC has been missing. However, he was really poor in both matches that FCC lost. Against the Union, Engel completed just 67% of his passes and gave away possession on 33% of his touches. Against Tigres he looked tired, getting beaten time and again up the wing by Juan Brunetta and Javier Aquino. Yedlin and Powell have both had their struggles as well. However, with no depth in the wide areas of defense, Noonan can’t rotate players out of matches when necessary.

Why I’m Not Worried

The two cases for worry above are legitimate. I don’t think anyone wondering if these issues will hinder FC Cincinnati’s chances at earning silverware is overreacting. I could argue that both played a significant role in FCC having one less trophy to compete for by being eliminated from the CCC. However, by the end of the season, I don’t think either will be a major cause for concern.

I outlined how neither Anunga nor Kubo looked like a capable replacement for Bucha. This is not because neither are capable of starting in the midfield. Rather, the structure around them will have to change for them to be successful playing alongside Nwobodo. As the season progresses and the team is given more time to gel, I think that each of these players can replace Bucha in the lineup for certain kinds of matches. If Anunga starts next to Nwobodo, FCC will have to be willing to skip the midfield in ball progression and play directly into the front line. Denkey can hold the ball up as the team transitions, and in Kubo, Orellano, and Baird the team has enough speed to play into the channels and let them chase the game a bit. If Kubo starts next to Nwobodo, then the midfield won’t be able to sit in a structured block and defend for long periods of time. In this case, FCC has to be willing to get on the front foot, press aggressively, and defend more in transition. These kinds of tactical tweaks take time to develop. By the end of the season, FCC will be able to deploy either if Bucha is unable to start or play 90 minutes.

Finally, without adding a wide defender to the roster the depth in that position won’t get better. However, I think when Matt Miazga returns to the lineup this might be a moot point. With Miazga anchoring the back line, Pat Noonan will have the flexibility to play Miles Robinson on the left or right. Robinson is a fantastic 1v1 defender and an accomplished passer. Hiding the defensive flaws of an emergency wingback deputy like Kubo is much easier with a guy like Robinson playing behind him. Asking Engel or Yedlin to take a step back in possession when they seem to be struggling is much easier with a guy like Robinson helping to keep the ball moving along the back line. Add that to the fact that Miazga might be the best defender and the best ball-playing center back on the roster, and his reintroduction to the lineup could work wonders for easing our fears that FCC’s wide defenders can’t get the job done.

Take a Breath, It’s a Long Season

It feels like we have a lot of data on the 2025 version of FC Cincinnati because they’ve played seven competitive matches. However, one of those matches was played after Evander had only been on the roster for a couple of days, four of them were played without a key piece in Luca Orellano, and all of them were played over just 21 days—with the team not having much time to train between recovery sessions and match days.

Matt Miazga coming back into the fold and the team having more time to play meaningful minutes in different scenarios are two major things that will make FC Cincinnati better this season. Let’s not forget that they can still add up to three U-22 players, either in the primary transfer window (ending April 23rd) or in the secondary window (beginning July 24th).

I, for one, am not worried about this FC Cincinnati team … or maybe I am … just a little.

The post Why I am (and definitely am not) worried about this FC Cincinnati team appeared first on Cincinnati Soccer Talk.

Preseason in every sport is notorious for sending fans into over-reaction mode. Whether our teams are winning or losing, we want real data from preseason performances that just doesn’t exist. FC Cincinnati handled the Union pretty easily in the end, winning  4-1 after 120 minutes of play. However, I would preach caution when reading anything into the results of the match. Instead, here are some tactical observations  that just might turn out to be true as we head into the season…maybe.

*Note: I’m writing this assuming that Lucho Acosta will not be on the roster for the 2025 season.

Kévin Denkey will get off to a slow start in 2025.

There is a truckload of caveats that needs to be dumped all over this take:

• Denkey hasn’t had much of a chance to play with important players like Yuya Kubo or Luca Orellano  due to their late arrival to camp.
• Denkey is a super-star designated player, and it wouldn’t be odd if he was just trying to get his fitness up while not getting hurt during the preseason.

Denkey’s strength and tenacity will probably allow him to get better as games progress and defenses wear down, yet we only saw him for around 30 minutes on Friday.

All of that said, I fully expect  Kévin Denkey to get off to a slow start this season, and not just because he is a young guy trying to get settled on a new team in a new country. FC Cincinnati seemed to have a very difficult time progressing the ball through the center of the pitch in this preseason match, and I think that will continue as the team tries to figure out life post-Lucho Acosta.

Acosta led the team in both progressive pass receptions (237) and progressive passes (250). That means if he wasn’t the one passing the ball forward and starting the attack, he was typically the one receiving the pass. On Friday, that presence was sorely missed. The team relied heavily on playing short passes to the wing backs and asking them to find an entry pass into the midfield or the forward line. When that wasn’t available, the team seemed to dump a ball in Kévin Denkey’s direction and ask him to battle a center back to hold the ball up while the team transitioned forward. All of this meant that Denkey spent a lot of time checking back into midfield to get onto 50/50 balls or to be an option for an under-pressure wingback. It is going to be tough for him to take on that much of the ball progression load and still find opportunities to put the ball into the back of the net.

Even if Evander or another Acosta replacement comes in soon, it will take some time for FC Cincinnati to sort out how they are going to get the ball to Kévin Denkey in dangerous forward positions. I expect him to start slow but build into the season as they do just that.

FC Cincinnati’s press will look the same, but be better, in 2025

I was really interested to see how FC Cincinnati would set up to press the opposition without Lucho Acosta on the pitch this season. Under Pat Noonan, the Orange and Blue has mostly pressed out of a 3-4-2-1 formation with Acosta both triggering and leading the press. That means that he was both indicating when the team should press and when it should drop off, often the furthest player forward when the opposition’s back line had the ball. Consequently, whoever was playing center forward spent a lot of time dropping in as an attacking midfielder in defense.

Without Lucho Acosta on the pitch on Friday, FCC still pressed out of the 3-4-2-1 formation. However, with the starters on the pitch, Kévin Denkey led the press with Luca Orellano and Pavel Bucha dropping in as midfielders. Denkey is not only much more energetic as the spearhead of the press than Acosta, but he will also be more adept at pulling defenders out of position or creating space in the box in transition when the press wins the ball back. Furthermore, new left wingback Lukas Engel is going to be far better defensively than Yamil Asad, Orellano, or any of the cast of characters that filled in at that spot last season.

FC Cincinnati’s first goal came directly off the press, and I expect that to be a feature for the team in 2025.

Yesterday's goals, a thread :

Pavel taking it himself. pic.twitter.com/T4yrtbtVgL

— FC Cincinnati (@fccincinnati) February 8, 2025

FC Cincinnati will defend more and look to score in transition in 2025

Last season we would often see FC Cincinnati build patiently from back to front before looking to get Lucho Acosta on the ball in the final third of the field. The team relied on set possession and pinning teams back to generate chances. On Friday, FCC certainly possessed the ball at times,but mostly with their defenders. Once the team made the decision to go forward, they looked to get there quickly.

I don’t think that FCC is going  to dump and chase or turn into the kind of direct team that we’ve seen out of the Red Bulls, St. Louis, or even the Philadelphia Union. However, it sure looked to me like the tactical emphasis in possession during this preseason match was to pass the ball side to side in the back and midfield only as a means to move the ball forward as quickly as possible. Often, the team would lose the ball or find a shot prior to both wingbacks even being able to join the attack.

That sort of frenetic pace will mean the team might spend more time defending, but when they win the ball, they will be more decisive in turning defense into attack.

So, that’s what I saw on Friday. I think these tactics just might give us a glimpse at how FCC will play throughout the coming season…maybe.

The post What I Think We Can Learn from a Preseason Match…Maybe appeared first on Cincinnati Soccer Talk.

Celentano’s career is undeniably on an upward trajectory. He signed a contract extension at the end of last year and earned his first call-up to the U.S. Men’s National Team this past January. Celentano is without a doubt the best goalkeeper to play for the Orange and Blue, but now that he’s no longer on a Generation Adidas contract and is a few years into his professional career, it’s worth taking stock of where he is relative to the rest of the league and to consider how much more he has to grow. 

Shot-stopping

Goalkeeping data from Football Reference lends further credence to the narrative. Celentano has improved as a shot-stopper in each of his seasons in MLS per Opta’s post-shot expected goals model (PSxG). 

For those unfamiliar, a post-shot expected goals model assigns additional variables like location on the goal to a traditional expected goals model to better reflect the quality of the shot on target. A xG model would assess two shots taken from the same location on the field as having the same chance of being scored whereas a PSxG model would assign a much higher value for a shot in the upper-90 of the goal as opposed to one right down the middle. 

So far in 2024, Celentano’s shot-stopping (PSxG +/- per 90) is the best of his career so far while facing essentially the same quality of shots (PSxG/Shots on Target). Progression from one year to the next is certainly a good thing. But that’s not the whole story. 

Celentano started 2024 as a truly elite shot-stopper in MLS, helping to propel FCC to the top of Major League Soccer’s defensive rankings. But after a strong start to the season, Celentano’s shot-stopping has taken a dip. Overall for the season, Celentano ranks 10th out of 21 goalkeepers who have played at least 10 90s in PSxG +/- per 90 minutes. Taking a closer look shows a precipitous drop-off after about the ten-match mark of the season. 

Game-by-game statistics will always be noisy, but even trying to account for that a little bit with a four-game rolling average, Celentano’s shot-stopping went from being a huge plus to FCC’s defense to being a liability. 

Distribution

FCC continues to play out the back in possession and Celentano looks more comfortable in possession. Out of 30 MLS goalkeepers with at least 1,000 minutes of game time in 2024, Celentano’s pass attempts rank seventh in American Soccer Analysis’ expected pass completion percentage with 77.8 percent. He has completed 78.6 percent of his passes, ever so slightly higher than the expected outcome.

The biggest reason is that he’s kicking the ball way up the field less often. Per FBref, Celentano “launched” (passes traveling more > 40 yards) just 30.9 percent of his goal kicks this season, compared to 70 percent in 2022 and 50.4 percent in 2023. For non-goal kicks, that number is 27.1 percent compared to 50.9 percent in 2022 and 41.9 percent in 2023. So Celentano is attempting and completing relatively easy passes while passing the ball shorter distances. Last season, Celentano attempted nearly four short passes (5-15 yards) and nearly seven medium passes (15-30 yards) per 90 minutes. This year, he’s attempting more than seven short passes and 10 medium passes per game.  

Playing with the ball at his feet isn’t likely to ever be a major strength in Celentano’s game but, with FCC’s defenders, he’s been able to move the ball around the team’s defensive third effectively enough to help break through opposing pressure. Being able to more consistently break lines would be a nice-to-have but FCC’s center backs and wingbacks are comfortable enough on the ball to pick up the ball progression slack. 

Looking Forward

Celentano has improved in every professional season he has played and he’s still just 23 years old, so it’d be premature to write that what we see now is Celentano’s final form. Ultimately, midway through the 2024 season, the Orange and Blue have an above-average MLS goalkeeper in Celentano. And we shouldn’t discount the potential for further development. His shot-stopping highlights are among the best in the league but hopefully, there’s more to come in terms of week-to-week consistency.

In the short term, FCC will be relying on Celentano to pick up a larger share of keeping the ball out of the net given Matt Miazga’s season-ending injury. Though new signing Chidobe Awaziem should provide additional defensive stability, having a goalkeeper operating at the peak of their ability for the end of the season and playoffs could be the difference between silverware and coming up short again.

The post Assessing Roman Celentano’s 2024 so far and what’s to come appeared first on Cincinnati Soccer Talk.

And Chris Albright and company will face a tough decision. Despite his hot start, Kelsy’s first season with the Orange and Blue has been a mixed bag. 

Fifteen Games In

In 800 minutes, per Fbref, Kelsy is averaging 0.18 expected goals per 90 minutes, ranking in the seventh percentile among strikers. American Soccer Analysis’ xG model, calculated from the same Opta event data but slightly different inputs, grades Kelsy’s opportunities slightly higher, putting him at 0.29 xG/96 minutes, ranking Kelsy 74th among MLS players with at least 800 minutes of game time in 2024. 

Different xG models aside, there should be alarm bells ringing about Kelsy’s ability to keep up the same level of production that he’s enjoyed so far this season. One of the most important things a striker can do is get into good shooting positions. If a striker consistently finds space to take shots, they’re generally pretty good. Just look at the players with the most shots/90 in MLS this year: Cucho, Lionel Messi, Raul Ruiduiz, Denis Bouanga, and Chicho Arango. Those players have combined for 66 goals so far. All five of those players are averaging more than 4.6 shots per 90 minutes. 

Kelsy is taking 1.91 shots/90. It’s obvious to say but it’s a whole lot easier to score more goals when you have more shots. The root cause of his lack of shots seems pretty straightforward: he’s just not touching the ball in the box enough. Kelsy’s 3.60 touches in the attacking penalty area per 90 minutes rank in the 13th percentile among strikers. 

To be fair, he isn’t the first FCC striker to be on an island considering how thoroughly Lucho Acosta dominates shot and goal creation in this part of the field. Finding the right angles and spaces to attack while timing a run correctly to Acosta’s dribbling will take time. Kelsy’s roadmap to future success in the box seems to thrive more on connecting with Luca Orellano, DeAndre Yedlin or another player receiving a pass from Acosta in position to cut the ball back across goal, either on the ground where Kelsy can attack the near post or in the air where he can use his size to bully retreating defenders.

Kelsy has struggled to be a consistent contributor in the build-up phase of play, too. Per 90 minutes, he is averaging just 4.28 progressive passes received per 90 minutes (18th percentile among strikers). Yes, the Orange and Blue are still looking to build out of the back more often than in previous seasons meaning there are fewer long balls for a target forward to attack. But Kelsy just hasn’t consistently provided an outlet up the field for teammates. Holding the ball up, finding a teammate and triggering moments of transition was a staple of the Orange and Blue’s attacking style in previous seasons under Pat Noonan. 

A Tough Decision

After all of the above, it’s worth emphasizing that Kelsy just turned 20 on July 27. So there’s still plenty of projecting what he’ll look like next year and beyond in the decision-making process. Kelsy is far from a finished product. His status as a (likely) U-22 player going forward is a mark in his favor given MLS’s new rules but at the end of the day, $7 million is a lot to spend on a transfer that still contains an element of risk.

The Leagues’ Cup break should provide some answers, however. The long break between MLS games should give Kelsy even more time to adjust to the team on the practice field and hopefully, Noonan will be willing to give him more minutes on the field. It’s in the best interest of the team to see exactly what it has in Kelsy. Though the first 15 games of his career in Cincinnati have been a mixed bag, the path to a permanent move is pretty clear. Look for Kelsy to be more involved in build-up patterns and then to find ways to impact the game in the final third. If the Orange and Blue can produce repeatable patterns of play that get Kelsy looks at goal, the team could take another step forward in the second half of the season. 

The post Kevin Kelsy’s up and down start in Orange and Blue appeared first on Cincinnati Soccer Talk.

More on Kevin Kelsy:#FCCincy will loan the Venezuelan from Shakhtar Donetsk through the 2024 season WITH a purchase option, set at around $7-8 million.

Kelsy becomes FC Cincinnati’s lone U-22 Initiative Player, Marco Angulo loaned out earlier in the window.#AllForCincy #MLS https://t.co/fFsacmPit7

— Kenta Hagiwara (@KentraHagatra) April 22, 2024

The Player

Kevin Kelsy is a 6’4″ left-footed center forward. The 19-year-old comes on loan to MLS after signing at Shakhtar for a reported one million euro fee from Uruguayan side Boston River in January of 2023. After featuring in the group stages of the Champions League for Shakhtar, he has found playing time in the Ukrainian Premier Liga difficult to come by. Kelsy has played a significant role for the Venezuelan U23 national team and is rated as a high-upside prospect.

Strengths

Kevin Kelsy fits the mold of a target forward. Not only does he have the size to compete with any central defender, but he also looks like he enjoys the physicality. His holdup play can be described as aggressive. He seeks contact with the defender and then tries to bully the ball into submission before trying to keep the ball while bulldozing through the opposition. He displays excellent balance through contact and is effective once he gets the ball under control.

Kelsy also displays supreme athleticism. He is quick for his size and can generate good power on headers, even when the ball is floated in, or he is moving away from goal. He is also an exuberant presser defensively. He will run around and harry the opponent, even if his pressing angles aren’t particularly effective. Finally, in Kelsy, Coach Pat Noonan will have a player who won’t need to be reminded to stay forward. This kid loves to occupy central defenders. He will check back to the ball to link play when necessary but would rather be running the channels or receiving the ball as the spearhead of an attack.

here’s a pic of Kevin Kelsy beating Pepe in the air to score a goal in the UCL pic.twitter.com/fgWmNSF6uJ

— (@gra_cin) April 22, 2024

Weaknesses

To say that Kevin Kelsy “bullies” the ball into the ground can be an understatement. The Venezuelan teenager doesn’t have soft feet. His first touch isn’t terrible but is more about trapping the ball and getting it under control than receiving it. This means that when the ball is fired into his feet or is bouncing it often ricochets off of him and straight back to the defense. Kelsy is also a teenager and plays that way at times. He often makes runs that look like he’s more concerned about staying active than about getting into a good position. Furthermore, when a veteran might try and kill off a game or draw a foul in the dying moments, Kelsy doesn’t always make the right decision.

What The Data Shows 

Nate Gilman here, dropping this section in to give FCC supporters as complete a view of Kelsy as we can, meaning a quick dive into the numbers. Unlike many U22 prospects, Kelsy will come to the Queen City with good production albeit in limited minutes across league and European competition minutes.

Per Wyscout, Kelsy averaged 0.48 xG per 90 minutes across all competitions in his career. In nearly 600 minutes this season across the Ukrainian top flight, the Ukrainian Cup and the UEFA Champions League, Kelsy put up a wildly impressive 0.6 xG/90. His shot chart from this season indicates an ability to find the ball in dangerous spots, a key aspect of all good strikers’ games.

An important caveat is that most of Kelsy’s minutes this year have come off the bench, giving him the opportunity to attack tired defenses or to chase games: two situations that can inflate attacking players’ numbers. Longtime readers will remember similar conversations about how production off the bench can translate across more starts before Brandon Vazquez’s true breakout.

Though the Ukraine Premier League ranks lower in UEFA rankings than leagues Chris Albright has shown interest in (see: Turkey, Czechia), Kelsy’s upside and youth make him a different proposition than previous acquisitions. Albright has looked to mine mid-tier European domestic leagues for plug-and-play starters. Though Kelsy arrives from a worse league, the fact that he’s held his own and put up very promising numbers in minimal minutes as a 19-year-old makes the deal worth whatever risk there is. Another minimization of risk is that the deal is a loan with an option to buy.

The Verdict

Kevin Kelsy almost certainly won’t light up the league in 2o24. The combination of his youthfulness, taking time to settle into a new team in a new country and his raw technical ability will hamper his statistical contribution. However, when he plays, his physical presence at the head of the attack should create a lot of space for Lucho Acosta and Co. to operate just in front of the opposition’s back line. Furthermore, even if he isn’t scoring goals or getting assists, he will most assuredly be an outlet for long passes that just need a touch before the Orange and Blue attempt to win the second ball.

The post Scouting Report: Kevin Kelsy appeared first on Cincinnati Soccer Talk.

The first half wasn’t much to write home about, but in the second half, as he so often does, Lucho Acosta proved to be a difference maker. He dominated the game from the minute he stepped on the field, and less than ten minutes into the second half, the Orange and Blue had a two-goal lead. Though FCC conceded a sloppy goal in the 62nd minute and had to hold on through a desperate Revs attack at the end of the game, three road points to conclude a brutal start to the season sets FCC up for the rest of 2024. 

FCC proved that it’s a really good team, going blow-for-blow with one of the best, if not the best, teams in the region in Monterrey. Though the Orange and Blue haven’t reached the heights of 2023 yet, it’s a good bet that the team’s best soccer is still ahead. So FCC returns to a normal training schedule without a midweek game until mid-May. 

Dado’s Start

Dado Valenzuela didn’t disappoint in his first MLS start. Though I think some of the Dado hype in the FCC fanbase is getting ahead of itself, Valenzuela had a good first half, providing ball progression through both passing and on the dribble. He moved the ball into the final third of the field six times in the first half, three passing and three carrying it forward himself. 

In the 27th minute, Valenzuela’s run from deep in FCC’s half of the field to just outside New England’s box was a great sign. He turned a situation where the Revs were pressing aggressively into a 5-v-4 transition situation where the Orange and Blue had the advantage all by beating his defender on the turn. Unfortunately, Valenzuela kept the ball just a bit too long, allowing an opposing center back to win a challenge. The hope is that with more minutes at this level, his decision-making will catch up to the speed of play. 

I still think it’s too early to view Valenzuela as a major cog in FCC’s success in 2024. But Sunday was a good sign that he won’t be majorly out of his depth. Pat Noonan struggled to find impactful attacking options off the bench in 2023. Valenzuela looks like he could be a potential option to fill that gap in the roster. 

FCC2 Looks Improved?

FCC2’s season started on Sunday as well, drawing in full-time 1-1 with Chicago Fire II at Scudamore Field at Northern Kentucky University. 

To say the team’s first two seasons in MLS NextPro were bad is a bit of an understatement. FCC2 had a -17.18 expected goal differential in 2022 followed by a -20.60 xGD in 2023 according to American Soccer Analysis data. For context, those are the fourth-worst and worst differentials in MLSNP’s existence. 

But Sunday’s game featured an FCC2 team outplaying its opponent. Even though the teams drew in regular time and FCC2 lost the shootout, the home team generated 1.68 xG and conceded just 0.78. The attacking talent looked dangerous in combination and Amir Daley, who scored the equalizer, was a force from his right wingback spot. 2023 and 2024 SuperDraft picks London Aghedo and Brian Schaefer figure for a lot of minutes on the backline and will hopefully shore up the team’s long-standing defensive issues. 

There’s space for a more abstract conversation about what the role of FCC2 should be in the player development pipeline for the first team. In a league with limited options for acquiring talent, smart teams should utilize all available pathways to find options. Minutes matter a whole lot for development, but finding a balance on the roster between academy talent, draft picks, undrafted college talent and other players to form a competitive unit should benefit everyone.

The post FC Cincinnati’s season starts now appeared first on Cincinnati Soccer Talk.

DeAndre Yedlin in Orange and Blue

Chris Albright finally got his wingback. On Sunday, FCC’s general manager filled the last major outstanding hole on the team’s roster with the acquisition of Yedlin from Inter Miami for an entertainingly specific $172,799 in General Allocation Money. 

Yuya Kubo, Bret Halsey and Alvas Powell all started games at right wingback early in the 2024 season and acquitted themselves well. But a proven solution at the position always seemed like it would be on Albright’s to-do list before the transfer window closed. 

Despite his 81 caps for the U.S. Men’s National Team, Yedlin’s arrival comes with some questions. Simply put, Yedlin hasn’t produced at even an average level in MLS in recent seasons. Situation matters and let’s not forget that Yedlin was playing on a terrible Miami team before the arrival of Lionel Messi and co. last year. 

In more than 2,320 minutes in 2023, Yedlin tallied just two assists and 2.2 expected assisted goals. Yedlin has never been an outside back who plays passes directly to teammates’ shots as he has just 18 assists across 284 matches played. Comparing Yedlin and Arias’ seasons from 2023, there’s a noticeable gap in production, especially in the attacking third. 

Again, context is key. Yedlin played much of last season on one of the worst teams in MLS. But at the same time, many of these numbers aren’t far off of his career norms. So even though we shouldn’t expect Yedlin to be a chance creator or major hub of ball progression for FCC, he should make the team better. 

Yedlin will provide width on the right and presumably another outlet higher up the field in the build-up. If teams continue to press, which they almost certainly will, Yedlin’s pace up the right wing should be a dangerous factor if FCC can find him in space. His defensive work rate will also be a valuable addition to FCC’s backline. Yedlin’s experience on the right side will help to balance Luca Orellano’s attack-first instincts on the left side of the field. His speed should also provide additional cover when FCC’s press is broken or after turnovers happen in inopportune parts of the field.

Availability has value in and of itself, too. Arias played just 1,652 minutes across 26 matches including 16 starts in 2023. As noted above, Yedlin played 2,320 minutes in 28 matches with 25 starts. Having your first-choice right wingback be available throughout the season will have positive knock-on effects for the rest of the roster. For example, Kubo can return to his super sub role, giving Pat Noonan a potential game-changer off the bench.  

Celentano’s Distribution

You’ve probably noticed a change in Roman Celentano’s game early in 2024. He’s playing long passes less often – a lot less often. According to Football Reference data, Celentano attempted 11.1 passes that traveled longer than 40 yards per 90 minutes in 2023 compared to just 4.50 per 90 minutes this year, albeit through just two league games. In 2023, Celentano hit 40-yard or longer passes on just over half of his goal kicks. This year, that number sits at less than 15 percent

Noonan’s emphasis on playing out of the back more this year is almost certainly a product of the departure of Brandon Vazquez’s aerial presence on deadballs as well as the addition of Miles Robinson’s passing on the backline. 

The Orange and Blue have a mixed record playing out of the back so far in 2024. By inviting pressure and then playing cleanly through it, FCC has found space in moments of transition that might not have otherwise happened. But the downside risks have been clear, too. Especially against teams willing to commit numbers high up the field, Celentano’s short to medium passing has already been put under a microscope. 

The sequence immediately preceding Obi Nwobodo’s called-a-penalty-but-ruled-just-outside-the-box foul against Toronto, Celentano received a pass back from Robinson. Pressured by an onrushing Prince Osei Owusu and with other Toronto players cutting off passing lanes to Murphy and Kipp Keller, Celentano tried to play a chipped ball toward his midfield double-pivot. Except he hit it too far, leaving Alonso Coello plenty of time to direct an uncontested headed pass to a teammate to come right back at Celentano’s goal with FCC’s defensive shape still in flux. 

There’s still been danger in situations where it’s worked out. Against Toronto, Celentano was pressured but was able to find Nwobodo in the middle of the field. In this situation, Nwobodo cleanly handled a pass that had to be, and was, hit pretty hard. But, as you can see, Nwobodo was tightly marked, as was Bucha alongside him. 

Hitting a hard pass covering a relatively far distance to a covered teammate coming towards the goal is a situation that often won’t work out well. Even assuming the pass recipient can bring the ball under control, they’re still moving away from where they want to, limiting what they can do next. 

Finding patterns of play where Celentano can make quick decisions to find open teammates will be vital. And he’ll have to have a quick trigger to just send the ball upfield if there’s nothing available. At a certain point, conceding possession past midfield outweighs the risks of turning it over in the defensive third.

To be fair, these are situations Celentano has rarely been in as a professional. He’ll have the opportunity to prove he can take a step forward with the ball at his feet. Watching his comfort level and if he can become an asset in FCC’s build-up play will be a key storyline as the 2024 season progresses. 

The post A final piece to FC Cincinnati’s 2024 puzzle? appeared first on Cincinnati Soccer Talk.

The Center Backs are Good

Even without reigning MLS Defender of the Year Matt Miazga, FCC’s new centerbacks Miles Robinson and Kipp Keller, along with Ian Murphy, made the position a strength. 

Robinson, the Orange and Blue’s highest profile offseason signing, dominated in the air, winning all seven of his aerial duels according to FBRef. Importantly, most of those challenges came in midfield. FCC pressed Toronto relentlessly, disrupting TFC’s attempts to build up out of the back and forcing long balls towards midfield. Robinson’s dominance in the air resulted in the Orange and Blue regaining possession after nearly all of those long balls. 

Keller was tested a little bit more, especially playing on the same side as Swiss Army Knife Yuya Kubo, who made his first league start at right wingback. Though Keller’s defending had to be more reactive, he acquitted himself well. He interceded in two of Toronto’s biggest chances of the game and very much looks the part of a solid rotation option, if not better, for the Orange and Blue. 

Mixed Debuts Elsewhere

New signings Pavel Bucha and Corey Baird joined Robinson and Keller in making their MLS debuts in Orange and Blue. 

Bucha, paired with Obi Nwobodo in a double-pivot at the base of midfield, didn’t have the best debut. For stretches of his 90-plus minutes on the field, he struggled to impact the game and made some potentially costly mistakes. The difference in game speed from last week’s CONCACAF Champions Cup game in Kingston to Sunday was on display and at times Bucha struggled to keep pace. However, FCC supporters shouldn’t be worried. He’ll be fine. 

Corey Baird’s FCC league debut was similarly up-and-down. Paired with Sergio Santos, Baird played a limited role throughout his 77 minutes. Though he nearly scored an acrobatic attempt off a set piece in the first half, Baird struggled to consistently find the ball. Of his 22 touches, just seven came in the final third, according to FBRef. Though the touch number is slightly different (27) on WhoScored, Baird’s touch map clearly shows a team struggling to link play between midfield and its strikers.

It’s obvious to say but Baird isn’t the same kind of player as Brandon Vazquez. Finding a way to move the ball up the field, especially in moments of transition, without relying on Vazquez’s hold-up ability is something FCC will have to adjust to. As FCC’s new core of starters learn how to play together, I’ll be watching to see how they solve that problem.

What Would Barreal Do?

Luca Orellano, officially announced as an FCC player on Friday, debuted at left wingback and attempted to fill the gap left by Álvaro Barreal. Orellano’s upside on the ball was evident. He already seems to be developing chemistry with Lucho Acosta who continued his habit of drifting to the left wing to combine. Orellano demonstrated his ability to beat players on the dribble and get the ball into the box, both in possession and by finding teammates. 

One moment that didn’t lead to much, but I thought was worth highlighting nonetheless, came in the 32nd minute. Orellano received a pass on the left side of the field and dribbled inside, passing to Keller just behind the halfway line. Instead of heading back to the left wing, Orellano continued his run up the middle of the field, drawing the attention of defenders and filling previously vacant space. When the ball ends up on the right side of the field, Orellano is in position to be an unmarked late-arriving runner to attack a cross into the box.

If you’re wondering WWBD (What Would Barreal Do?) in this situation, I think it’s just about what Orellano did. Which is a good sign for him finding the same dangerous spaces that Barreal did for FCC. Orellano’s attacking instincts should add something relatively unique in MLS, especially because it seems Pat Noonan will give him the same amount of freedom to find space as his predecessor enjoyed. 

Defensively, Orellano was solid, especially considering he ended up in multiple one-on-one situations with Italian international Federico Bernardeschi. This isn’t to say that he was perfect but Noonan and company don’t need perfection defensively. Considering that Sunday was Orellano’s debut at wingback, he acquitted himself well and, if he continues to improve, he’ll be good enough for what FCC needs.

The post FC Cincinnati’s new additions show promise but aren’t on the same page (yet) appeared first on Cincinnati Soccer Talk.

How Does Orellano Fit In? 

Orellano primarily played as an inverted winger at Vasco da Gama, and before that, at Vélez Sarsfield. Simply put, he’s been a left-footed player on the right wing, able to cut infield to his stronger side. In 2022, Orellano played more than 2,700 minutes for Vélez Sarsfield, chipping in three goals and four assists. 

However, according to his advanced numbers, Orellano was one of the team’s most impactful attackers, contributing 5.5 expected goals and 5.9 expected goals and assists (0.37 xG + xGA per 90 minutes). Across more than 900 minutes in the Copa Libertadores, South America’s premier club tournament, Orellano put up 0.32 xG + xGA per 90 minutes. 

For context, in 2023 Álvaro Barreal’s xG + xAG per 90 minutes was 0.39. It isn’t a one-to-one comparison, even accounting for league differences because of positional differences. Even on a 2022 Vélez Sarsfield team that struggled compared to 2021, Orellano demonstrated an ability to impact games at the highest level in South America as a 21-year-old.

Orellano received nearly nine progressive passes a game, indicating an ability to find space in the final third. With the ball around the box, Orellano completed just about two successful penalty area entries per game in 2022. 

Something else that jumps out of Orellano’s data profile is his ability on-the-ball in one-on-one situations. Per Fbref, Orellano attempted 6.67 take-ons per 90 minutes over the last year, succeeding in 50 percent. Granted, his minutes at Vasco da Gama were limited and mostly off the bench, but the trend carried forward from his tenure at Sarsfield. Though he succeeded less in 2022, in 2021, he attempted 6.60 take-ons with a 52 percent success rate. Basically, the Orange and Blue are getting a player who is willing to try to beat his defender on the dribble. For an FCC team lacking a dominant aerial threat in the box (coupled with the fact that crosses are an inefficient way of creating scoring chances anyways), Orellano’s ability on the ball should help to create cut-backs and other higher-quality scoring opportunities.

Orellano’s Instant Impact

When Álvaro Barreal remained on the roster, Orellano’s fit in the starting eleven was trickier to imagine. Playing two converted wingers as wingbacks surely would have led to FCC scoring more goals but also almost certainly would’ve sacrificed some defensive solidity out-of-possession. Now, following Barreal’s reported loan to Cruzeiro, Orellano should immediately slot into Barreal’s vacated position. Orellano’s limited experience at wingback means some defensive lapses shouldn’t be a surprise. However, his contributions going forward should make up for any defensive issues. Finding a replacement for Barreal’s creativity in the final third was never going to be easy. Chris Albright’s bet that another winger who began his career at Sarsfield can be converted into a nominal defender will be fascinating to follow. Orellano should have free reign in the final third, either to stay wide or to underlap, much like Barreal, making his transition from winger-to-wingback a little easier. 

How Noonan chooses to balance his backline will also be a major question. A more traditional wingback on the right, either Alvas Powell or Bret Halsey, would provide additional defensive stability. However, Yuya Kubo’s wingback debut in Thursday’s CONCACAF Champions Cup win in Jamaica offers a more aggressive option. Kubo’s comfort on the ball in all kinds of situations would offer attacking versatility from both wings if paired with Orellano on the left. 

How quickly Orellano can adjust to life in MLS will be a major question in FCC’s Supporters’ Shield defense. Noonan relied on Barreal for so much in the final third but Orellano profiles as a player who should be able to hit the ground running. 

The post What to expect from Luca Orellano appeared first on Cincinnati Soccer Talk.

What The Data Says

First, the return to a mid-tier European league to fill a roster hole is an interesting one. For 2023-24, Czechia ranks 11th in UEFA’s domestic club coefficient rankings, two spots behind Turkey. Albright’s comfort with trusting how success in Turkey’s Süper Lig would translate well to Major League Soccer has been vindicated by the play of Nwobodo and Aaron Boupendza. Whether the transition from the Fortuna Liga to MLS is as seamless of a transition as the one from the Süper Lig remains to be seen but the thought process seems sound. 

PAVEL BUCHA (for @pesi44126105)

𝗘𝗟𝗘𝗠𝗘𝗡𝗧𝗔𝗥𝗬 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟐/𝟮𝟑 𝗗𝗔𝗧𝗔:
Career stage: entering peak
Club: FC Viktoria Plzeň
Starts: 32,69

* personal note:
it's not like he'd make a bad CDM, it's just that it's an eternal shame pic.twitter.com/qPD1MdbeQR

— Czech Football (@czechfooty) July 23, 2023

At first glance, Bucha looks like an excellent fit for an evolving FCC roster. For the last two seasons, Álvaro Barreal provided uncommon attacking output for a left wingback. Assuming Barreal gets the move he is looking for to Europe this month, Bucha looks able to fill in some of the missing final third production that leaves. 

Last year, Bucha ranked in the top 15 among Fortuna Liga midfielders in passes, progressive passes and deep completions per Wyscout data. Though he doesn’t seem to push the ball forward on the dribble all that often, Bucha can clearly help get the ball forward to the likes of Boupendza and Lucho Acosta in the final third. 

From Wyscout

Bucha also gets forward and takes shots. He’s averaged 2.15 shots per 90 minutes this season and 0.22 non-penalty expected goals per game. For context, Acosta averaged 0.23 npxG, Barreal averaged 0.10 npxG and Moreno averaged 0.05 npxG per 90 minutes in 2023. Assuming he leaves, not only will FCC miss Barreal’s passing in the final third but also his ability to crash the box and find shots. Bucha’s offensive profile suggests he can replace some of Barreal’s contributions as a more attack-minded midfielder. 

To borrow a term more generally used in basketball, and similar to Boupendza, Bucha is a bit of gunner when it comes to shot selection. There are examples of good shots but plenty of speculative efforts from outside the 18-yard box. 

From Wyscout

Defensively, Bucha looks like a good fit for Pat Noonan’s system given his strengths in the counterpress. Per Wyscout, Bucha averaged 2.6 recoveries in the final third per 90 minutes and 6.09 counter-pressing recoveries per 90 minutes. Wyscout credits Bucha with just one ball recovery via sliding tackle this season but 73 interceptions. Bucha looks likely to contribute defensively, just not at the same clip as Nwobodo, and in a different way. 

From Wyscout

Bucha should give Noonan an option in midfield who can do more going forward in a 3-5-2 and take some offensive expectation off an outside back’s plate. Even with the outstanding questions at wingback, FCC looks to be in a position to find more offensive answers in 2024 with the addition of Bucha. 

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